Category: Investing
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Here is the argument in one sentence: Europe’s industrial future depends on a trans-Saharan corridor that moves goods, energy, and people north and south, and the current migration regime is a political construction designed to stop the people while pretending to manage the goods. That sounds like a provocation. It is not. It is the…
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The worry is understandable, and it is wrong. The worry is that Africa’s space ambitions will be captured—that the African Space Agency will become a client of Roscosmos, or a subsidiary of the Chinese space programme, or a paper coordinator that Europe has to work around rather than with. The institutional facts do not support…
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Why Automation Multiplies the Workforce and Then Moves It Somewhere With Cheaper Electricity A robot is not a worker. It is a capital good with a power cord, and the cord is the part that determines where it gets plugged in. This distinction is the whole argument. The political class in the West has convinced…
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The individual question and the aggregate question have different answers, and the answers are not in tension. They are the same mechanism observed at two scales, and the mechanism is habit. Ask whether a given sixty-five-year-old can be strong, aerobically fit, metabolically clean and sexually functional. The answer is yes, with a discipline that is…
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The comparison that gets made is the wrong comparison, and it gets made for the wrong reason. The United States under its current administration is compared to interwar Germany because the aesthetic rhymes: the rallies, the rhetoric, the contempt for institutions, the paramilitary cosplay. Aesthetic rhyme is not structural equivalence, and the structural differences are…
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Every capital allocation has two questions. Where is the volume, and where is the narrative. For most of the last decade the energy transition assumed the two questions had the same answer. They did not, they do not, and the gap between them is where the money is being made and lost. The narrative lives…
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Transitions have a shape. The mining analysts named a shape like this one after Pierre Lassonde. It starts with a discovery peak, when the narrative outruns the asset, then falls into a capitulation trough, when the asset arrives and the narrative has left. A long consolidation follows, and then a second rise that arrives late…
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There are two Finnish energy transitions. One is in the statistics, where solar installations, EV registrations and reserve-market bids are recorded. The other is in the opinions, where the fuel is too expensive, the state should do something, and the decision does not belong to the person being asked. The statistics are moving and the…
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There is a sequence in Finnish energy adoption, and it is not random. The operating commercial estate moves first. The commercial property company moves second. The homeowner moves third—and has stalled. The housing cooperative moves last. The ordering follows the number of doors between the decision and the bill, and the data on each rung…
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There is a gap between what Finnish housing cooperative residents say about solar panels, batteries and EV chargers and what the Finnish housing cooperative actually does every year. The stated position is familiar: we live in a taloyhtiö, so we cannot install solar; it’s impossible, the decision is not ours to make, we cannot do…