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Here is the argument in one sentence: Europe’s industrial future depends on a trans-Saharan corridor that moves goods, energy, and people north and south, and the current migration regime is a political construction designed to stop the people while pretending to manage the goods. That sounds like a provocation. It is not. It is the…
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The worry is understandable, and it is wrong. The worry is that Africa’s space ambitions will be captured—that the African Space Agency will become a client of Roscosmos, or a subsidiary of the Chinese space programme, or a paper coordinator that Europe has to work around rather than with. The institutional facts do not support…
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The white crow’s withdrawal is routinely misread as radicalism, and the misreading is convenient because it allows the collective to deploy the tools it already has. Those tools do not work. They do not work because radicalism and alienation are not the same phenomenon, and the difference is structural. The Radical Needs the Flock Radicalization…
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Finland’s post-1990s social settlement produced a specific kind of outsider: the citizen who holds the passport but not the membership. The white crow is not a foreigner. But the mechanism that keeps the foreigner on a temporary permit—provisional inclusion, conditional belonging, permanent assessment—operates on the white crow with the same effect. The difference is that…
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A criminal register that never expires is not a public safety instrument. It is a permanent placement. And a permanent placement is the state’s way of saying that the question of who a person is has already been answered. The principle is simple, and it is the principle every serious legal system outside the American…
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Why Automation Multiplies the Workforce and Then Moves It Somewhere With Cheaper Electricity A robot is not a worker. It is a capital good with a power cord, and the cord is the part that determines where it gets plugged in. This distinction is the whole argument. The political class in the West has convinced…
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The individual question and the aggregate question have different answers, and the answers are not in tension. They are the same mechanism observed at two scales, and the mechanism is habit. Ask whether a given sixty-five-year-old can be strong, aerobically fit, metabolically clean and sexually functional. The answer is yes, with a discipline that is…
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The comparison that gets made is the wrong comparison, and it gets made for the wrong reason. The United States under its current administration is compared to interwar Germany because the aesthetic rhymes: the rallies, the rhetoric, the contempt for institutions, the paramilitary cosplay. Aesthetic rhyme is not structural equivalence, and the structural differences are…
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Every capital allocation has two questions. Where is the volume, and where is the narrative. For most of the last decade the energy transition assumed the two questions had the same answer. They did not, they do not, and the gap between them is where the money is being made and lost. The narrative lives…
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Transitions have a shape. The mining analysts named a shape like this one after Pierre Lassonde. It starts with a discovery peak, when the narrative outruns the asset, then falls into a capitulation trough, when the asset arrives and the narrative has left. A long consolidation follows, and then a second rise that arrives late…